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石建勋的博客

同济大学经济与管理学院经济金融系教授

 
 
 

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同济大学经济与管理学院经济金融系教授,东南大学管理学院兼职教授,中国青年企业家协会常务理事,人民日报海外版特约评论员。 曾在政府机关和企事业单位工作20余年,担任过政府机关处长、历任四家大型企业集团主要负责人和某上市公司董事、总经理,曾发表经济与管理论文百余篇,出版著作12部。

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中国继续向美国定量宽松施压  

2010-11-10 11:59:46|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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         英国《金融时报》 斯蒂芬•瓦格斯蒂尔 报道 20101109 15:07 PM

现在看来,汇率战争在本周20国集团(G20)首尔峰会召开前,是不大可能平息了。在新兴市场国家官员们越来越直言不讳地警告美国扩大流动性之举对本国的潜在影响之际,看到中国政府本周伊始便又一次向华盛顿开火,也就不足为奇了。

据路透社(Reuters)来自北京的报道,中国财政部副部长朱光耀在周一的一个吹风会上说:

美国在当前实施第二轮定量宽松货币政策,并未意识到其作为储备货币发行国家应该履行的职责,也没有考虑到流动性泛滥给新兴市场经济体带来的影响。

朱光耀说,中国计划就美国的6000亿美元定量宽松计划“坦率地”与美方交换意见,尽管在上周末召开的亚太经合组织(Apec)21国财长会议上,中美两国政府在汇率和贸易失衡问题上的激烈争执已有所缓和。

朱光耀的批评态度随后略有软化。他预计,G20峰会将向全球市场发出一个积极信号,“加强包括对美联储奉行的货币政策在内的宏观经济政策的协调与沟通”。

但北京方面并没有掩饰内心的想法。周日,上海同济大学教授石建勋为中共机关报《人民日报》(People's Daily)撰文称,定量宽松政策于中国不利,于世界不利。他表示:“其实质就是无节制地大量增发货币,等于间接操控汇率。”

“汇率战的实质是贸易战,如果爆发贸易战,带给全球经济的不仅仅是危机,而有可能是崩溃……最终令各方利益都受损,”石建勋写道。“美联储的行为将“触发全球范围内的‘货币贬值竞赛’……(导致)‘货币战’和贸易保护主义,从而对全球经济复苏构成威胁。”

由于德国同样坚信美国政策会给世界带来风险,在本周晚些时候的首尔峰会上,美国官员预计将受到严厉责问。但至少世界银行(World Bank)行长罗伯特•佐利克(Robert Zoellick)正设法平息风波。他呼吁各国探讨建立一个以经过改良的以金本位制为核心的全球货币新体系。佐利克周一在英国《金融时报》撰文提出了建立一个新体系,该体系“可能需要包括美元、欧元、日元、英镑,以及走向国际化、继而开放资本账户的人民币”。

佐利克补充道:“该体系还应考虑把黄金作为通胀、通缩和未来货币价值之市场预期的全球参考点。”

译者/何黎

By Stefan Wagstyl

Little chance, it seems, of the currency wars abating before this week’s G20 Summit in Seoul. With officials from emerging markets increasingly open about warning about the potential impact on their countries of the US liquidity drive, it is no surprise to see Beijing starting the week with another shot at Washington.

 As Reuters reports from Beijing, Zhu Guangyao, the vice minister of finance, said at a briefing on Monday:

As a major reserve currency issuer, for the United States to launch a second round of quantitative easing at this time, we feel that it did not recognise its responsibility to stabilise global markets and did not think about the impact of excessive liquidity on emerging markets.

Zhu said China plans “frank discussions” with the US its $600bn quantative easing plan, even though Beijing and Washington had over the weekend turned down the heat in the acrimonious dispute over currencies and trade imbalances at a meeting of finance ministers from the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

 Zhu softened his criticisms a little by predicting the G20 meeting would send a positive signal to global markets “We, including the Federal Reserve, will strengthen coordination of and communication about macroeconomic policies and monetary policies,” he said, according to Reuters.

 But there is no disguising the depth of feeling in Beijing. On Sunday, the People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist party newspaper, said that quantitative easing was bad for China and bad for the world. “In essence this is an uncontrolled increase in money supply, equal to indirect exchange rate manipulation,” Shi Jianxun of Shanghai’s Tongji University wrote in a front page commentary.

  “Exchange rate wars are in fact trade wars, and if they set off a trade war it won’t only threaten the global economy, it will perhaps cause a collapse … and everyone’s interests will be harmed,” the academic added. The Federal Reserve’s actions will “touch off a global competition to devalue currencies … (leading to) a ‘currency war’ and trade protectionism, threatening the global economic recovery”, Shi wrote.

With Germany equally adamant about the risks to the world of US policy, US officials will face some tough questioning in Seoul later this week. But at least, Robert Zoellick the World Bank president, is trying to pour oil on troubled waters by calling for a debate on a new global currency system with an modified gold standard at its heart. Writing in the Financial Times on Monday, Zoellick proposed a system that “is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and a renminbi that moves towards internationalisation and then an open capital account”.

 He added: “The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.”

    

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